The aging of Kazakhstan’s population continues to accelerate. The aging index, which measures the ratio of elderly people per 100 children, has been steadily increasing in recent years. While the figure stood at 26.7 in 2021, it reached 32.9 in 2025. This means that for every 100 children under 15, there were almost 33 elderly people in the country. This indicator has increased significantly over the past four years, and the trend remains stable, Energyprom.kz reported based on data from the Bureau of National Statistics.
The urban population is aging particularly rapidly. In 2025, the aging index in cities reached 34.9, compared to 28.8 in 2021. In rural areas, the index increased from 23.9 to 29.6.
The key reason for this is the worsening balance between the birth rate and aging. Despite overall population growth, its structure is shifting, not favoring the younger generation. The number of children under 14 has begun to decline: from 5.9 million at the beginning of 2025 to 5.8 million at the beginning of 2026.
At the same time, the number of elderly Kazakhstanis over 65 is steadily increasing: from 1.2 million at the beginning of 2016 to 2 million at the beginning of 2026. Over the past decade, the number of elderly people in the country has grown by 59.6%—much more than the number of children.
Falling birth rates create additional pressure. The total birth rate fell to 16.4 per 1,000 people in 2025. In just four years, the birth rate in the country has fallen by almost a third. In cities, it fell from 23.2 in 2021 to 15.8 in 2025, and in rural areas, from 23.8 to 17.5.
Current trends are expected to continue, and the pressure on the labor market, healthcare system, and social security will only increase.
