Kazakhstan’s economic growth is expected to moderate in 2026 and 2027 as oil output nears peak production capacity and private demand softens, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026, released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, from 6.5% in 2025, supported by continued state-led investment and quasi-fiscal activities. Private consumption is projected to moderate amid tighter consumer lending restrictions, higher taxes, and weaker real income growth.
“Kazakhstan’s economic growth is moderating but remains resilient in a challenging external environment,” said ADB Country Director for Kazakhstan Utsav Kumar. “Prolonged supply chain disruptions related to the Middle East conflict could affect growth and add to inflationary pressures. Continued progress on structural reforms to strengthen fiscal buffers, bolster finance sector resilience, enhance competitiveness, and deepen regional connectivity will be important to sustain economic growth.”
Inflation is projected to gradually ease to 10.4% in 2026 and 9.5% in 2027, from 11.4% in 2025, as monetary conditions remain tight, tax pressures ease, and inflation expectations stabilize. However, weaker fiscal consolidation, regulated utility tariff increases, and renewed exchange rate pressures could raise inflation projections.
The ADO notes that advancing fiscal decentralization could strengthen Kazakhstan’s revenue performance. More fiscal autonomy for subnational governments—while ensuring a fair equalization system—would help unlock the country’s regional development potential and enable regions to deliver public services more effectively in line with local needs.
