Tajikistan’s economic growth is expected to remain strong in 2026 and 2027, driven mainly by industry and services, according to the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) latest forecast. Stronger industrial competitiveness leading to greater value addition will support long term growth and job creation.
The country’s gross domestic product is projected to expand by 7.3% this year and 6.8% in 2027, easing from 8.4% in 2025, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026, ADB’s flagship economic publication. Inflation is forecast to rise to 4.0% this year and 4.5% in 2027 on strong consumer lending and remittance inflows, increases in public sector wages, supply chain disruptions, and adjustments in utility tariffs. With uncertain regional environment, projections are subject to further revision.
“Tajikistan’s strong growth opens up opportunities to accelerate job creation,” said ADB Country Director for Tajikistan Ko Sakamoto. “By growing competitive, value-adding industries—from food processing and textiles to mineral products—the country can turn growth into more and better jobs, which is the key focus of our country partnership strategy for Tajikistan.”
Industrial output in Tajikistan has grown strongly in recent years. However, the economy remains constrained by a narrow production base. Exports are still dominated by unprocessed commodities and low to mid-technology products, while manufactured and higher value-added goods account for less than 10% of merchandise exports.
Against this backdrop, ADO April 2026 calls for Tajikistan to adopt an integrated ecosystem-based industrial policy framework. A coordinated approach would need to look beyond individual sectors and address constraints across the broader business ecosystem, including infrastructure, skills, access to finance, and overall business environment.
