The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has proposed a balanced “middle path” strategy that could provide a solid foundation for the modernization of Central Asia’s power sector. This approach would ensure reliable and affordable energy supply, significantly reduce the carbon footprint, and enable a smooth energy transition that benefits the region’s economy and meets climate commitments.
The new EDB report titled “Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition” formulates the “middle path” strategy for energy transition—a balanced modernization model combining the upgrading of conventional generation, the development of renewable energy, storage, grids, digitalization, and regional integration.
Key findings of the report:
The region is growing, but infrastructure is aging: by 2030, electricity consumption in Central Asia will increase by 40%, and by 2035, 62.8 GW of new capacity are planned to be deployed. Meanwhile, more than half of the grids and power plants are already worn out.
Extremes do not work: a conservative approach perpetuates risks and a high carbon footprint, while “green maximalism” threatens reliability and leads to rising tariffs.
The EDB’s “middle path” is a balanced strategy combining the modernization of conventional generation, the development of renewable energy, the deployment of energy storage, and the digitalization of grids.
Impact on the region: capital costs are 30–45% lower than under “green maximalism,” the cost of electricity is 25–35% lower, and the carbon footprint is five times smaller than under the conservative scenario.
“The ‘middle path’ is an economic and technological strategy that allows Central Asia to complement the reliability of conventional energy with the environmental benefits of new technologies,” says Evgeny Vinokurov, EDB Chief Economist. “We should take advantage of all available sources – from sun and wind to gas, hydro and nuclear energy. It means active expansion of renewable energy capacity, while not forgetting to modernize conventional plants, develop new grids and energy storage facilities, and launch full-fledged regional trade. Such a flexible approach will provide the region with a solid foundation for economic growth.”
The implementation of the strategy requires coordination between governments, businesses, and international institutions. The report’s key conclusion is that for Central Asia, the “middle path” is the most realistic and sustainable strategy. Unlike the “green maximalism” scenario and the conservative scenario of maintaining the dominance of fossil fuel generation, this approach involves a pragmatic combination of modernizing existing assets, phased development of renewable energy, commissioning flexible gas-fired capacity, energy storage systems, digitalization, and the creation of a regional market.
