Governments of five Central Asian countries could raise GDP per capita by 6 to 14 percent above projected levels by 2050 by increasing investments in children’s health, education, and development, according to a new report released by UNICEF, the United Nations Children’s Fund.
According to “Generation 2050 in Central Asia,” the Central Asian region has a unique opportunity to harness a “demographic dividend” as over 50% of its population is under the age of 30. In the next two decades, this cohort will form the largest labor force the region has ever seen.
Central Asia’s population will grow steadily through the first half of the 21st century and is expected to nearly double between 2000 and 2050—from 56.2 million to approximately 111.7 million.
The region’s population remains youthful, particularly in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, where children and young people under 25 years make up nearly half of the population. Median age data further reflect this opportunity: Tajikistan (22.2), Kyrgyzstan (25.4), and Uzbekistan (27.0) remain among the youngest populations in the region. Even by 2050, the median age in these countries will remain below 30, underlining the prolonged duration of the demographic dividend.
Kazakhstan, meanwhile, is ageing more rapidly—with a median age of 29.7 years in 2025, expected to rise to 31.2 by 2050. These trends signal a narrowing opportunity for demographic dividends in Kazakhstan while offering a longer window for countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Tajikistan is set to undergo the fastest demographic expansion. Its population, currently around 10.8 million (2025), is projected to surpass 15.6 million by mid-century—an increase of over 45 percent. Uzbekistan, already the most populous country in the region, is expected to add more than 15 million people, reflecting nearly 40 percent growth. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan will each grow by around one-third, while Kazakhstan is expected to see a 27 percent increase.
Between 2000 and 2050, Uzbekistan’s population is projected to more than double—from 24.8 million to 52.2 million. Kazakhstan will grow from 15.5 million to 26.5 million, and Tajikistan from 6.3 million to 15.6 million. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan will also see significant increases, reaching around 9.6 million and 9.6 million, respectively, by 2050.
The UNICEF report suggests a set of cost-effective investments that can help the Central Asian countries harness the productive potential of their children and young people:
- Universal early childhood development and quality education through secondary school
- Essential health and nutrition, with priority to maternal, newborn and adolescent health
- Child and social protection systems that reach every child and family
- Skills for the green and digital economy, and active labor-market measures for young people
- Safe water, sanitation and climate-resilient services, especially in vulnerable communities.
