International rating agency S&P Global Ratings has upgraded the sovereign credit rating of Kazakhstan to “BBB”. Previously, the country’s sovereign credit rating stood at “BBB-”, according to the Kazakh Ministry of National Economy.
According to the agency’s rating scale, Kazakhstan has achieved this rating level for the first time since 2016.
The sovereign rating upgrade reflects the country’s resilient economic growth prospects, continued economic diversification, and substantial accumulated external and fiscal buffers.
According to the agency, Kazakhstan’s economy will remain resilient and continue to grow over the medium term despite external challenges and volatility in global commodity prices.
Analysts forecast real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026. Looking ahead, Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to maintain relatively high growth rates compared with other oil-exporting countries.
S&P highlights the role of the large-scale investment program currently being implemented to diversify the economy. Financing projects aimed at developing raw-material processing and infrastructure, including through Baiterek National Managing Holding, is expected to raise the investment-to-GDP ratio to 30% over time.
In S&P’s view, restrained growth in budget expenditure and measures to broaden the tax base will help reduce the budget deficit.
Given its substantial foreign-currency assets, which exceed its moderate external debt, Kazakhstan will maintain a strong net external creditor position.
The agency also noted the banking sector’s resilience to macroeconomic shocks. The consistent enhancement of regulatory and supervisory policies has contributed to greater banking-sector resilience and reduced systemic risks related to asset quality.
