Uzbekistan’s economic growth is projected to remain robust at 6.7% in 2026 and edge up to 6.8% in 2027, following an exceptionally strong expansion of 7.7% in 2025, according to the latest forecasts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026.
Growth accelerated in 2025, exceeding expectations as strong performance across all major economic sectors supported expansion. Services remained the main growth driver, expanding by 14.7%, supported by trade, logistics, digital services, and tourism. Industry excluding construction grew by 6.8%, while construction surged by 14.2%, reflecting strong investment in housing and infrastructure. Agriculture also contributed, expanding by 4.4%, on continued gains in crop and livestock production.
“Uzbekistan enters the next two years from a position of strength, supported by resilient domestic demand, high levels of investment, and ongoing structural reforms,” said Kanokpan Lao-Araya, ADB Country Director for Uzbekistan. “Sustained reforms and fiscal discipline have enhanced the economy’s resilience amid external uncertainties, while the challenge ahead is to shift toward more productive, private sector led growth.”
Domestic demand remained the main pillar of growth in 2025, underpinned by rising household incomes, robust business activity, and strong investment. Real household incomes grew by 9.2%, while overall investment rose by 10.5%, driven by enterprise resources, household savings, and foreign direct investment, particularly in manufacturing, logistics, construction, and urban development.
Inflation eased faster than anticipated, declining to 7.3% in 2025 from 9.8% in 2024, reflecting tight monetary policy, exchange rate appreciation, and easing cost pressures. Inflation is projected to continue its downward path, reaching 6.5% in 2026 and converging toward the central bank’s medium‑term target of 5.0% in 2027, although administered energy price adjustments and food supply risks may temporarily slow disinflation.
Fiscal consolidation continued in 2025, with the budget deficit narrowing to 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), while protecting social spending. Monetary conditions remained tight, supporting disinflation and stabilizing inflation expectations. External balances strengthened as exports, tourism receipts, and remittances increased, with international reserves remaining ample.
The report highlights a key policy challenge for Uzbekistan is accelerating economic transformation through state‑owned enterprise reform and accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). WTO accession is expected to help anchor reforms, improve competitiveness, boost export diversification, and attract higher‑quality investment. Deeper state-owned enterprise reform, regulatory modernization, and improved market competition will be essential to sustaining productivity‑driven growth over the medium term.
