Two years ago, Kazakhstan launched the project of Alatau City, intended to become a platform for the implementation of advanced technologies, a magnet for investors, and a generator of public wealth. Economist Aidar Alibayev shared his opinion on the mega-project’s prospects with Orda.kz.
“How did the idea of Alatau City appear? Initially, there was talk that Kazakhstan needed a special territory, a new economic zone with special conditions and taxation regime. This initiative came from above and stemmed from President Tokayev’s passion for digitalization,” said Alibayev.
In his words, there were also arguments that Almaty was overcrowded, suffocating, lacking available land, lacking space to create and develop new industries and businesses, but instead facing environmental and seismic risks. Therefore, it was necessary to build a new city that would help relieve the congestion and become a magnet for business energy and capital.
But does Kazakhstan really need such a city when inflation exceeds double digits, state budget expenditures for 2026 exceed revenues by over five trillion tenge, and the authorities are raising VAT to 16% to replenish the budget, asks Alibayev.
According to the economist, today Kazakhstan has no major investors other than Chinese ones. And Chinese investors are doing everything in such a way that everything they invest in becomes theirs, Alibayev believes. The Chinese aren’t just coming with money, but with “strings attached.” They’re bringing their own materials and their own workers. If they hire locals, it’ll only be for the lowest-paying jobs.
“This isn’t really investment, but rather an economic takeover of the territory. If they build Alatau, it could be called a Chinese city. If non-Chinese investors also come, it’s quite possible they won’t be genuine investors, but scammers,” Alibayev suggested.
Therefore, the expert believes two possible scenarios are likely. The favorable scenario: Some money, private and public, will come in, and office buildings, housing, and maybe even an industrial zone will be built. But no economic miracle, no breakthrough in logistics or fintech will occur.
The more realistic and negative scenario: They’ll build buildings that no one needs, or won’t even finish them, and will simply pour foundations and dig pits. And no international business will go there.
