The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has presented its Macroeconomic Outlook for the Bank’s member states for 2026–2028.
EDB analysts expect aggregate GDP growth across the seven member states to reach 2.3% in 2026, with most countries maintaining high levels of economic activity. In 2026, GDP growth is projected at 5.3% in Armenia, 1.8% in Belarus, 5.5% in Kazakhstan, 9.3% in Kyrgyzstan, 1.4% in Russia, 8.1% in Tajikistan, and 6.8% in Uzbekistan.
Kazakhstan
EDB analysts expect Kazakhstan’s economy to maintain steady growth of 5.5% in 2026. The implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the launch of the state program ‘Order for Investment’ will mitigate the negative impact of lower oil prices. Economic growth will also be supported by an expansion of non-resource exports. Inflation is expected to decline after peaking in early 2026 due to the VAT increase. Moderately tight monetary conditions will help reduce inflation to 9.7% by the end of 2026. According to EDB forecasts, the average exchange rate of the tenge will be 535 tenge per US dollar in 2026, supported by a high base rate and growth in non-resource exports.
Kyrgyzstan
In 2026, Kyrgyzstan is expected to remain the regional leader in terms of GDP growth, at around 9.3%. This growth will be driven by increased investment in transport, energy and water supply infrastructure, as well as housing construction. EDB analysts forecast inflation to slow to 8.3% by the end of 2026. A faster decline in inflation will restrain increases in tariffs and excise duties. The average exchange rate of the som in 2026 is projected at 89.2 per US dollar, supported by rising remittances and high gold prices, with gold remaining the country’s key export commodity.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan’s economy is expected to maintain high GDP growth of around 8.1% in 2026. The main growth drivers will be expanded capacity in energy and manufacturing, as well as higher prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is projected to rise to 4.5% YoY by the end of 2026 and remain within the target range of 5±2%. The somoni exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by rising exports and remittances. According to EDB forecasts, the average exchange rate in 2026 will be approximately 9.8 per US dollar.
Uzbekistan
EDB analysts expect Uzbekistan’s economy to continue growing at a sustainably high rate of around 6.8% in 2026. Growth will be driven by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is anticipated to continue declining towards the Central Bank’s target and may slow to 6.7% by the end of 2026, supported by relatively tight monetary conditions and exchange rate stability, with the soum projected to average around 12,800 per US dollar over the year. The national currency will be supported by high remittance inflows and rising metal exports amid a favorable price environment.
