U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in August culminated in the signing of a trilateral Joint Declaration, which, among others, envisions the U.S. entering the South Caucasus region as the primary driver of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project, according to an article published by Newcaucasus.com. The project envisions the creation of a transport corridor through Armenian territory connecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave surrounded by Armenia, Iran, and Turkey.
The intensification of U.S. policy in the South Caucasus has attracted the interest of Central Asian countries, which pin their hopes on the South Caucasus to diversify logistics routes for their own products and transit from Southeast Asia to Europe. However, TRIPP is impossible without the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or the Middle Corridor, which links China with European countries.
In 2024, cargo traffic along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route increased by 1.72 million tons, 62% more than in 2023, reaching 4.5 million tons. According to the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan, 15.3 million tons of transit cargo from or to China were transported across the country in 2024. Uzbekistan also increased its cargo volume along the TITR by 25% in 2024.
Kazakhstan’s ports on the Caspian Sea are considered a weak link in the TITR. Kazakhstan’s seaports lack merchant vessels, and its shipyards are only engaged in repairs, not construction of new ships. The shallowing of the Caspian Sea also negatively impacts the operations of merchant vessels, forcing them to load less than their full capacity.
However, Kazakhstan is addressing these issues. For example, dredging work was recently completed at the port of Kuryk. The port’s approach channel is currently 7 meters deep. Dredging will increase the depth of the port of Aktau to 7.7 meters. A container hub is being built at the port, which, once operational, will increase its throughput capacity from the current 140,000 to 240,000 TEU.
Independent expert from Kazakhstan, Nurlan Alniyazov, noted that Kazakhstan, as a source and transit country for cargo, is interested in expanding the capacity of the Middle Corridor, while China is interested in diversifying routes to Europe. In this regard, the countries of the South Caucasus are the most important hub for increasing capacity and diversifying transport routes.
Before the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Georgia remained the only Middle Corridor route in the Caucasus. In the fall of 2023, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan established a joint venture to improve cargo transportation along the Middle Corridor. In July of this year, Kazakhstan’s railway company and the Turkish company TCDD Taşimacilik A.Ş. signed an agreement on cooperation and the development of freight transportation along the Middle Corridor railway route, which included increasing traffic volumes along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway.
Perhaps the most significant tectonic shift for the South Caucasus region was the Second Karabakh War. The first outcome of the war was the introduction of the Zangezur Corridor, designed to connect Nakhchivan with the rest of Azerbaijan via Armenia, into the realm of interstate dialogue. However, the war in Ukraine, the events of September 2023, when Azerbaijani troops took control of all of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Donald Trump’s peacekeeping efforts for Azerbaijan and Armenia led to Russia being forced to give up its role as mediator and potential controller of the Zangezur Corridor in favor of the United States, which will act as the TRIPP transport route manager.
Azerbaijani analyst Rauf Mirkadirov noted in an interview with Newcaucasus.com that China and European countries are seeking a land corridor that would allow them to connect the two largest economic regions without political risks. Therefore, the coordinated work of TITR in Central Asian countries, as well as along the South Caucasus routes, both through Georgia and the Zangezur Corridor, will help reduce geopolitical and economic risks to the stable transportation of goods.
However, TRIPP has raised concerns among some Armenian experts. For example, analyst Grant Mikaelyan, in an interview with Newcaucasus.com, asserts that the purpose of the so-called Zangezur Corridor is primarily geopolitical. Under international pressure, the Armenian authorities are allegedly forced to agree to a dangerous transportation project, which was imposed on the Armenian leadership following the lost Karabakh war. The Armenian expert fears that TRIPP could be used to transport weapons, a possibility that has also been raised by Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan.
According to Rauf Mirkadirov, TRIPP could be used in the medium term to build oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia to Turkey and on to Europe. However, TRIPP is unlikely to compete with Georgian transport corridors and will likely complement them.
Nurlan Alniyazov is confident that TRIPP will also be beneficial for Armenia, which until recently remained outside of TRIPP. Armenia will become a new logistics hub connecting Azerbaijan, Nakhchivan, Turkey, and Europe, ultimately increasing the transit potential of the entire South Caucasus.
